Love the analysis as always but two things I would give my opinion on. 4 year cycle theory is a fallacy $btc imo just acts as a lagging tech stock. Secondly my opinion also is that $etf will be a sell the news event. ETF could also potentially mark the single best time to deploy dry powder into alts bc btc maxi and safety narrative will be at its highest and by this time a lot of alts will be close back to their lows scaring off ppl right before big pump. One interesting thing to not from past few weeks is $others outperformance of $btc even after such a powerful move. In my eyes that’s what you want to see bc it’s giving the indication others are stronger than btc here, which also gives more weight to the retrace only theory imo. Imagine we pump to 48k by second week of Nov then absolutely dump into halving where 4 year cycle ppl get the most bullish bc “halving” perspective.
Thanks I appreciate the thoughts. However, the 4 year cycle is not a fallacy. It is a very prevalent and proven cycle especially in the stock market. It is the presidential election cycle and one that has been respected by traditional markets for decades. I get what you are saying about BTC and whether or not the halving narrative is true but regardless we know 4 years is key and the halvening has likely played a central role in the bitcoin cycle and will likely continue to although it may be less obvious as the asset grows. As to what happens in November, price targets, and the ETF my thoughts around this are in my last video post. TIME is more important than price
Love the analysis as always but two things I would give my opinion on. 4 year cycle theory is a fallacy $btc imo just acts as a lagging tech stock. Secondly my opinion also is that $etf will be a sell the news event. ETF could also potentially mark the single best time to deploy dry powder into alts bc btc maxi and safety narrative will be at its highest and by this time a lot of alts will be close back to their lows scaring off ppl right before big pump. One interesting thing to not from past few weeks is $others outperformance of $btc even after such a powerful move. In my eyes that’s what you want to see bc it’s giving the indication others are stronger than btc here, which also gives more weight to the retrace only theory imo. Imagine we pump to 48k by second week of Nov then absolutely dump into halving where 4 year cycle ppl get the most bullish bc “halving” perspective.
Thanks I appreciate the thoughts. However, the 4 year cycle is not a fallacy. It is a very prevalent and proven cycle especially in the stock market. It is the presidential election cycle and one that has been respected by traditional markets for decades. I get what you are saying about BTC and whether or not the halving narrative is true but regardless we know 4 years is key and the halvening has likely played a central role in the bitcoin cycle and will likely continue to although it may be less obvious as the asset grows. As to what happens in November, price targets, and the ETF my thoughts around this are in my last video post. TIME is more important than price