It's Time to Get Ready for Buying
Investing is a tough game and timing the market is even tougher. It’s a game that forces you to be humble. You have to be nimble you have to set your ego aside. You have to constantly evaluate and reevaluate. And when the market is telling you you’re wrong you have to listen or get run over. The market has no feelings and it could care less if you get left behind. That’s what we’re seeing today.
The thing about trading is you’re constantly on the search for answers as to whats going on. Particularly when things aren’t playing out as you expected. The best are willing to throw their ideas in the trash and change opinion on a dime. Thats the definition of being open minded. The ability to change your beliefs as new information becomes available.
Since this rally has gone on longer than I anticipated I have been forced to question what’s really going on. And no matter what I think, the price is telling a different story. In my search for answers I have come across some very compelling new perspectives on the current cycle and where we are.
As I spoke about in the yearly outlook cycles do matter and history does happen over and over again. The better you understand this the better investor you will become. A quote I recently read went like this,
“The only thing new in the world is history you don’t know yet”- Harry S. Truman.
Based on the new perspectives, and information I have uncovered, from people much smarter than myself, I do not believe we will see a serious crash in 2023. There will be no recession. Interest rates will stay higher for longer and inflation will subside. But asset prices will not see a major markdown from here.
Now, that does not mean that we will not see lower prices. I do still believe the market is overheated at this point and will correct. There will be big swings but, as I mentioned in my last update I think the chance we see new lows is now unlikely. If we do, great I will buy the hell out of them. If not, thats fine too, I will buy the hell out of the next dip. Which, I still believe we will get into March and maybe April. But barring any serious global event this market rally seems too strong to have a panic.
After reviewing the recent rally and the past price action it appears many of the crypto coins bottomed at various times last year. Some coins even bottomed as early as the June bottom. Others finally saw lows around the FTX crash in November and December. Just as crypto led the crash starting in November 2021 it has likely bottomed before stocks as well. This appears to be the case so far.
Again, I still believe there is a better buying opportunity to come soon so do not buy out of fomo, it’s one of the worst things you can do. However, we cannot ignore the recent price action. In the face of all kinds of bad news the market is telling us it wants to go up, it’s that simple. Recently we have had increased geopolitical tensions, inflation is rearing its head again, interest rates are higher, and a number of other events that would have scared the markets in 2022 are not getting the same reaction this year.