Although times like this can be tough on a portfolio they are great at separating the wheat from the chaff in the market.
Today we have two great opportunities with market leaders in what is looking to be a standout sector of 2025, RWA.
I’ve spent thousands of hours reviewing alt charts and small cap charts and I can confidently say this is one of the nastiest mid cycle corrections we have ever witnessed.
In fact the entire low cap space is still in a bear market versus BTC. So while the argument of the day is whether or not the cycle is just beginning or it’s over, there is actually some truth to both sides.
I believe what we have seen in this market going all the way back to the beginning of 2023 where the real on chain activity started, is somewhat akin to the famous echo bubble GCR had predicted.
If you look at many of the strong tokens from the beginning of the cycle you will see that they had huge runs that really resulted in a lower macro top before totally falling apart.
There are many examples, and not to pick on any one in particular but take $KUJI for instance.
This was one we identified early on and it had a huge run up. But notice how it only just went slightly above its 2021 high and totally collapsed to a new low below the 2022 bear market low.
This is just one example but there are many cases like this. Early cycle projects have essentially completed a full market cycle without ever really gaining traction above the 2021 highs.
In essence it was an echo bubble for many tokens and not a new bubble.
This is what has made this cycle so interesting and simultaneously difficult versus previous alt cycles.
Having observed this phenomenon in many of this cycles early small cap winners I believe ultimately that they have totally collapsed and will not recover.
The market is doing a full cleansing of the space. The good news is, that this actually makes room for a bigger longer cycle as many small cap alts and alt sectors have yet to begin their cycle given the relative performance of BTC.
Which is how we have such an opportunity today, during what appears to be a full reset, to really zoom out and identify which projects have truly proven longevity in this current cycle.
I believe you will see that these projects that have been slowly building without a huge run up or a huge collapse in price but rather steady accumulation over many many months will prove to be the ultimate winners over the long haul.
The more continued dilution the market faces with new token launches the bigger and stronger the major winner will be.
Think about Bitcoin or the magnificent seven in stocks. They are household names and brands yet they continue to dominate and capture more and more market share.
In other words buying the winners will continue to vastly outperform over a longer cycle than trying to find the next 1million to 1 billion dollar coin.
Those opportunities will happen but they will be fleeting and returns will be diminished over a longer term.
The bigger proven projects will continue to survive and gain strength while the smaller speculative alts go through quick booms and busts like the above chart displayed.
That brings us to two sector leaders today that are standing out amongst a graveyard of alt coins.
These projects are not only leading the way out of this dip but they have proven themselves over a long cycle and will continue to gain strength and market share in an emerging sector that is set to capture trillions in value over the coming decade.
The Case For RWA
Before we get to today’s picks let’s briefly look at why RWA is leading this bloody alt market at the moment and why its strength is set to continue.
First we have this great Dune analytics dashboard from DYOR Crypto that shows the relative strength of different sectors.
Looking at the 90 day time frame we can see that RWA stands alone at the top of the leaderboard. The bigger the time frame the more telling this strength is especially given the fact that the market for alts topped around 90 days ago.
The next big tell is Mantra DAO ticker OM. This is the biggest RWA protocol and a clear winner in this cycle and of this current market.
The way it has continued to make new highs amidst a market onslaught is extremely telling of what comes next. It’s not hard to see that this is a sector you will want some exposure to this year.
Larry Fink the head of Blackrock is on record saying that he expects this sector to be worth nearly 20 trillion in the future (keep in mind all of crypto market cap is only 3 trillion).
There is tremendous room for growth here and plenty of real use cases for this type technology across many different areas of finance from real estate to bonds.
With the ETF’s leading the way for institutional adoption and likely approval of ETH staking at some point this year, its clear which area of crypto institutions have their eye on next.
Let’s look at two smaller protocols that have been showing exceptional strength in this market and are set for tremendous upside with the explosion of this sector.