The Stage Is Set: Stocks Will Make New All Time Highs By February
What Comes Next In The Market Is Going To Shock Most People. Don't Get Caught On The Wrong Side.
One thing I have found out about life is that times often get the toughest right before you have a major breakthrough. We all know the meme of the two guys digging for diamonds and one stops right before he hits the gold mine not knowing he was a few feet away from glory.
Well let me tell you why this is exactly what is happening in the market today and its setting up a major breakthrough for those that dig a little deeper.
I read an article the other morning in the Wall Street Journal that retail traders are throwing in the towel.
After a year of easy market gains in 2021 many everyday people became stock market experts. All you had to do was buy calls on tech stocks and make money. People quit their jobs and went full time trading.
Well, in 2022 that dream came crashing down. According to the article most small investors began to realize that making money over the long term in the market is not so easy.
We have now reached a point in 2023 where most of these people have thrown in the towel on their dream and gone back to work a 9-5 after their saving and market gains have dried up.
Simply put, the article was all about the fact that most small investors are no longer taking risks, betting on stocks like AMC and Gamestop. They are turning to safer investments like bonds and retiring from their dreams of being a trader.
This is a GREAT sign for risk.
You have to understand that market bubbles only form once EVERYONE IS ALL IN. Today, we have the exact opposite scenario.
In fact, this article gives me all the more reason to believe that we will see new all time highs in the stock market in the first few months of next year.
The retail gamblers giving up, along with the extensive cycle work I have been looking at, I believe a big big rally is about to unfold that will take the markets to new highs in the first quarter of next year.
Going back 90 years, I looked at nearly every major cycle and time period.
What I found was that in nearly all the major cycles we had a major low in the markets around mid October to early November. From there, the market went on to make new highs or new all time highs anywhere from late January to early March of the following year.
The breakdown out of the 12 cycles I looked at going all the way back to 1933 went like this.
In 8 out of the 12 cycles the market made a major low anywhere from early October to the latest being around November 20 and then went on to make all time highs. 8 out of 12 times!
On the other 4 occasions the market did not make all time highs but it did have a massive rally. Mainly, the reason being that the year before was a major crash and the market had a much longer road to recover. (2022 was not a major crash)
But, the key takeaway is that in ALL 12 major cycles the market made a huge rally from the October/November lows. And, not in one instance did it go on to crash from here.
I believe this setup is exactly what we are seeing now.
Barring any major catastrophic event, markets will do what causes the most pain for the most people. With the majority of part time risk takers out of the market, war, recession, and rate hike fears, it’s time for a move like this to happen.
This is yet another sign that we are ready to go risk on. Time and price convergence in stocks. Time and price convergence in the dollar. And finally as the rally kicks off, and stock markets run to new highs, people will really get an appetite for risk which will inevitably spill over into the crypto market.
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