I’m doing things a little differently this week. Going to try and do more video format because its easier than writing and can help you visualize a bit more of how I’m seeing this market.
For those of you that have been following along this year I have been calling for a significant low in mid to late march pretty much since December.
Well here we are. That inflection point is upon us now and I believe it’s time to get greedy. I initially thought we would see new lows this year but if you read my recent issues you will see why I changed my mind.
“A wise man changes his mind frequently a fool, never”
You have to adjust when you get new information and I believe we have seen the worst of the markets.
I only had 5 minutes to do the video above so make sure to watch that first, but for more context let’s look at the fear and greed index.
We currently sit at a 34 on the index which is in the fear zone but not extreme fear. Per my video the last two time we were in this scenario (A break above the 200 day moving average after a prolonged bear market) and retested the 200 day moving average was April 25, 2019 and August 15, 2015 but the index doesn’t go back that far so I will use the break above the 200 DMA and retest after covid which was may 11, 2020.
As you can see we were right at 40. Very close to where it sits today at 34 yet there is even more fear today than back then. And check out what happened to the price a little more than 60 days later on both occasions.
Just a little over 60 days later the price more than doubled. So can we expect around 40k bitcoin in late may or early June? Although the history is short it would suggest so.
Both of these moves were followed by long sideways periods but again no new low was made and this particular setup has shown to be an incredible buying opportunity in the past.
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