Often times when the market heats up and everything begins to fly it becomes very easy to ignore sound investing and trading principles that got you to be a success in the first place.
It becomes increasingly hard to separate the signal from the noise because the noise reaches a fever pitch.
You can get to a point where you’re just shooting fish in a barrel because everything is going up. Yet the idea is that you want to find the biggest and strongest winners that will not just be a flash in the pan but will remain in a sustained uptrend for months at a time.
This is why it’s so important to understand your investing goals and have a framework that fits those goals. It allows you to remain calm under pressure and separate out the signal from the noise.
This is what we would call first principles. First principles, are essentially what they say they are.
They are the fundamental assumptions that cannot be derived from other assumptions or propositions. They are the foundation of knowledge and science, or in this case, investing that allow us to solve problems by breaking them down into their core elements.
So what does that mean for us? Well, when everything begins to go up and you can simply close your eyes and throw a dart at the wall how do you pick the biggest winners?
We get back to our first priciples of our framework.
In our case our framework is first and foremost based on time.
Are we in a risk on or risk off environment?
Then we go to the trends of the market.
The trend is your friend and winners are most likely to keep winning. So which sectors are winning the most and which tokens within those sectors are the biggest winners?
Finally, once we have identified we are in the right environment and we have seen the top performers of each sector, we go to human behavioral component of the market.
Which narratives, themes, and branding appeal most to the human brain based on millions of years of psychological programming.
Those are the three core tenants and philosophies behind how we construct our portfolios. When things start flying like they have been we have to clear the slate and start at our first principles to separate the signal and find real winners.
Today, I have two new additions to our watchlist that have fallen within this framework. They are in emerging narratives, with strong trending price action, and have the branding and product market fit to produce substantial multipliers on your capital.