Stefan, thanks for this. What are your thoughts on the final, bull market top for this cycle? Where does the impulse that begins in August end? I remember you previously discussed a provisional top around November/Dec, correcting into Feb, before a final huge push into May 2025 and then bear market from then. That was a few weeks ago - whats your thinking now?
I think these are important time periods to watch. however, I am not ready to say this cycle will end that early i believe we will get a full cycle top in the second half of 2025 but getting there will not be a cakewalk by any means. I can promise you I am working on this riddle extensively everyday. My goal I have not stated publicly but with the research I am doing i aim to call the cycle top date and price months in advance. I will clearly share it with you when I have it but as you can imagine this work is not easy
Of course, and I am deeply appreciative of the effort that it takes to thread together all these different data points! I agree with you - the people who said that because of ETFs, this time is different, were proven wrong. There was no “infinite” bid, and in fact inflows can go negative. This makes it much more likely that the idea of the left translates cycle (in my view) loses credibility, and in fact, we may in the end respect bull market cycles which would (given 144 weeks from the low of November 21, 2022), lead us to approx Q3-Q4 2025. Of course - I will be here with you reading intently as we figure out what happens along the way!
Yes 100% etf is just a narrative to distract people. Price will fool everyone along the way but the time must be respected and we are seeing that already given where we are now vs previous cycles. Price is different (more expansion) but time is the same. As for 144 I’m glad you said that. I think it would be smart to pay very close attention to that number in both time and price. It’s really the core of my research at the moment and will play a significant role going forward.
Thanks for sharing. Good pragmatic strategy for this summer
Stefan, thanks for this. What are your thoughts on the final, bull market top for this cycle? Where does the impulse that begins in August end? I remember you previously discussed a provisional top around November/Dec, correcting into Feb, before a final huge push into May 2025 and then bear market from then. That was a few weeks ago - whats your thinking now?
I think these are important time periods to watch. however, I am not ready to say this cycle will end that early i believe we will get a full cycle top in the second half of 2025 but getting there will not be a cakewalk by any means. I can promise you I am working on this riddle extensively everyday. My goal I have not stated publicly but with the research I am doing i aim to call the cycle top date and price months in advance. I will clearly share it with you when I have it but as you can imagine this work is not easy
Of course, and I am deeply appreciative of the effort that it takes to thread together all these different data points! I agree with you - the people who said that because of ETFs, this time is different, were proven wrong. There was no “infinite” bid, and in fact inflows can go negative. This makes it much more likely that the idea of the left translates cycle (in my view) loses credibility, and in fact, we may in the end respect bull market cycles which would (given 144 weeks from the low of November 21, 2022), lead us to approx Q3-Q4 2025. Of course - I will be here with you reading intently as we figure out what happens along the way!
Yes 100% etf is just a narrative to distract people. Price will fool everyone along the way but the time must be respected and we are seeing that already given where we are now vs previous cycles. Price is different (more expansion) but time is the same. As for 144 I’m glad you said that. I think it would be smart to pay very close attention to that number in both time and price. It’s really the core of my research at the moment and will play a significant role going forward.
Strong video! Cheers
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