Every day that goes by I get more and more bullish on this market.
At the beginning of the week I covered why I believe the low is in from a time and price perspective, but it’s from a sentiment perspective that things continue to shape up in extraordinary fashion.
There is nothing new or different about this crypto cycle yet everyone seems to have some sort of short term memory loss on how these things go. In fact, the sentiment surrounding the market today is one that is eerily similar to September of 2023 just before BTC tripled in price.
The general feeling surrounding the market is one of desperation and despair as most people have bled themselves dry over the last five months and for whatever reason believe that the market should deliver them millions of dollars on a silver platter. If that’s what you think a bull market is then go give your money to charity as it will be better served there.
In fact, everything I am going to cover here this morning is something that we covered in our X spaces last night. Do yourself a favor and go give that a listen here.
Since we covered it last night I’ll try not to go too deep on this but there are several stories that caught my eye this week that I want to touch on.
First up, a redditor post I saw this morning while scrolling the X feed.
A little bit long but if you listen to the space you’ll know what I’m getting at. Essentially, this guy thinks that just because we are in a bull run he can chuck a bunch of money at the market and walk away a multimillionaire. This couldn’t be further from reality.
We are in a major bull run, but that actually means the market is going to try and trick you every which way possible, not just hand you over a boatload of cash.
Again, listen to the space, I don’t know how many times I need to tell you but it’s extremely important stuff regarding this kind of human behavior and psychology. Markets are EXTREMELY hard to outperform. When everyone is easily beating the market it’s the top.
The reality is most people have lost money this year in crypto. Yes they are down, particularly if they play the highly volatile alt coin market. The Alt market is in fact down on the year. And in a market that regularly corrects 70-90% that means you have to have extraordinary entries to be up. Like this guy, if you got in after October you are most likely DOWN on the year. So don’t feel bad, most people are in the same boat.
But, that brings us to where we are in this range and in this phase of the market. I have experienced first hand the horror of what I am about to tell you so I know it’s true of today’s market.
What the market is doing here is depleting everyone of all their gains and any free capital up to this point and forcing them to feel like they cannot make money in this space. Exhibit A is the image above. This guy went more than all in and he is now throwing in the towel blaming the market instead of his pure greed. Once people like him completely capitulate and/or lose all their money the market will take off like a rocket ship.
It’s the harsh reality of how markets work. It has happened to me before and it’s once again playing out clear as day based on what I am seeing on the timeline. It was the same sentiment just a year ago when everyone left crypto for dead in September 2023. I was there, I traded it. I remember vividly talking to the top trader of the biggest financial research publication in the world. He traded billions of dollars a day on Wall Street and he told me (nearly to the day of the low) that crypto was dead.
As long time readers know, we called that low to buy.
Today, we are once again coming out in full force with our bull pants on. But, let me tell you why I see this cycle as just heating up and no where near from over. The news stories that dropped this week went well under most people radars but for the keen investors that follow us and know how to read between the lines it’s getting more bullish than ever.
Check out this headline that came across my feed this morning.
Better yet here is a quote from the article, ““We’re currently in a hot-sauce arms race as more and more issuers look to push the envelope on volatility because there is a market for it”
In other words, risk appetite on Wall Street is EXPLODING. The ETF in particular they are talking about here is the leveraged Microstrategy ETF. Funds everywhere have underperformed this market and they are looking to take on more risk to catch up. This risky behavior only begets even riskier behavior as it trickles down the curve.
But it’s not only Wall Street that is amping up the volume on this mega mania we are about to enter, its BOTH presidential candidates who are adding fuel to this fire.
This week both Trump and Harris came out with aggressive proposals to solve the housing affordability crisis.
Trump proposing to build entirely new cities on federal land while Kamala proposes to give out 25k to fist time home buyers. Neither of those plans are possible without massive credit creation and putting people in debt at the worst possible time. Like clockwork the cycle never fails to find a way to complete. Long time readers know the pivotal role the real estate cycle plays in all of this.
All this news come on the back of an already impressive week for crypto.
We have Trumps family getting directly involved in their own project. We have the Democrats teaming up with billionaires to get loud about pro crypto policy. We have Russia legalizing crypto payments and mining. And we have Mastercard launching a crypto debit card with one of the most widely used crypto wallets to facilitate direct purchases from your crypto account.
So again, I’m not here to say whether any of this is good or bad. If you ask me I could care less. I do not believe for a second that any of these people have our best interests in mind. But what I do know is that the stage is being set for the biggest crypto bull run we have ever seen.
With stocks ripping higher once again while crypto stagnates market participants are more dejected than ever. The redditor example proves this and is likely very true for a majority of market participants. Price capitulation and time capitulation will sap them of their hope and capital before the real bull run unfolds.
Don’t fall into this trap. Listen to the spaces we did yesterday but better yet, become a premium subscriber for insights you will get no where else along with access to our crypto watchlists that have been outperforming this market by a wide margin.
It’s more important than ever that you understand these things because just being in a bull market is not enough as you can see by the performance the past 5 months. You need to read between the lines and stay ahead of this market if you truly want an edge.